Weirdly, tariffs are expected to grow the PC market

Researcher IDC has unexpectedly concluded that the current administration’s see-sawing tariff plan is going to actually help the PC market grow in 2025.

IDC said Wednesday that it now expects that the PC market will grow 4.1 percent over 2024, reaching 274 million units shipped this year. However, the PC market is also expected to contract in 2026, and the PC market should begin declining in the second half of 2025, the firm said.

Market watchers have expected the transition between Windows 10 and 11 to help boost the market. Microsoft has said on numerous occasions that Windows 10 will end support this October, with some exceptions for paid extended support options. However, that shift has been expected to help spur the sales of new hardware.

Oddly, IDC barely mentioned the Windows 10 transition, pointing out instead that PC makers hurriedly shipped new hardware in advance of the tariffs, which have ranged from between 10 and over 100 percent, depending upon the month and where the product originated.

“The 90 day pause and tariffs exemption applied to personal computers, combined with a definite level of uncertainty on what will happen after the 90 day pause, is motivating PC manufacturers to seize the moment and ship larger than anticipated volumes in the U.S.,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, a research vice-president with IDC’s Worldwide PC Trackers, in a statement. “However, expectations of worsening macroeconomic conditions around the world and in the U.S. characterized by upward pressures on prices and degrading consumer sentiment, will impact the PC market in the second half of 2025. Nonetheless, IDC expects commercial demand for PCs to be healthy in 2025 as the Windows 11 migration continues steadily.”

In Europe, the PC market is expected to follow more traditional trend lines, growing in the second half of the year as businesses convert their installed PCs to new hardware based upon Windows 11, IDC said.